Will Javier Milei be the next leader out before 2027?
Implied probability 2%+1
Total volume$14k
Liquidity$32k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 24 Sept, 20:17 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 18:56 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 18:24 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 17:55 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 17:27 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 16:54 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Sept, 16:26 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 15:25 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Sept, 14:44 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 14:28 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Sept, 13:32 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Sept, 13:24 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 12:55 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Sept, 11:55 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 11:26 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 10:55 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 10:28 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 09:56 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 09:22 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 08:42 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Sept, 08:29 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Sept, 07:54 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Sept, 07:25 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 06:57 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Sept, 06:22 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 05:54 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 05:28 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 04:49 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 04:23 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 03:46 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 03:26 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 02:44 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 02:25 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 01:58 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 01:08 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 00:55 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 00:23 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 23:55 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 23:27 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 22:55 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 22:27 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 21:50 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 21:29 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Sept, 20:55 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Sept, 20:27 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 19:54 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 19:21 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 18:25 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Sept, 17:59 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 17:25 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 16:49 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 16:19 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 15:54 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Sept, 15:24 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Sept, 14:54 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 14:23 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Sept, 13:56 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 13:28 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 12:54 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 12:14 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 11:51 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 10:11 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 09:28 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 07:59 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 06:43 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 06:21 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Sept, 05:55 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Sept, 05:26 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 04:54 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 04:28 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Sept, 03:49 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 03:22 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 02:51 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Sept, 02:18 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 01:59 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 01:27 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 00:54 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 00:28 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 23:47 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 20:35 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 17:54 UTC | 0% |
| 21 Sept, 17:54 UTC | 0% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The Yes outcome triggers if Javier Milei permanently leaves his office before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Temporary absences, caretaker roles, or mere resignation announcements do not count toward this result. Readers often mistake temporary suspensions or interim arrangements for a final removal from power.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%
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