Will 2026 rank between 10th and 12th among the highest domestic box office years?
Why it moved: +7 points at 18:22 UTC, after Deadline: Universal Becomes First Studio To Pass $5 Billion At Year-To-Date Global Box Office — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 18% |
| 25 Sept, 21:27 UTC | 19% |
| 25 Sept, 20:53 UTC | 21% |
| 25 Sept, 19:32 UTC | 17% |
| 25 Sept, 19:25 UTC | 18% |
| 25 Sept, 18:22 UTC | 18% |
| 24 Sept, 18:07 UTC | 11% |
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if 2026 ranks between 10th and 12th in total annual domestic box office gross among all recorded years, based on unadjusted nominal figures from Box Office Mojo. The outcome depends on the final 2026 value compared against every other year listed on that specific chart, with ties favoring the higher rank.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 18%
- No 82%
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