Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?
Why it moved: −5 points at 11:18 UTC, after Times of India: Russia raises troop numbers to 1.55m as Zelensky accuses mass mobilisation — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 8% |
| 30 Sept, 11:47 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Sept, 11:18 UTC | 9% |
| 25 Sept, 14:32 UTC | 14% |
| 25 Sept, 14:25 UTC | 13% |
| 25 Sept, 13:54 UTC | 13% |
| 23 Sept, 19:54 UTC | 13% |
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Russia issues a formal decree or official announcement that creates a new compulsory mobilization or expands the existing one by October 31, 2026. It resolves to No if no such specific legal act occurs within that deadline. Readers often mistake general military budget increases or routine conscription for a qualifying forced mobilization.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 8%
- No 93%
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