US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
Implied probability 4%
24-hour volume$7
Total volume$638k
Liquidity$26k
Resolves31 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 06:43 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Sept, 06:28 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 05:42 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Sept, 01:46 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Sept, 19:49 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Sept, 17:36 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Sept, 17:36 UTC | 5% |
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Trump administration makes a direct, unqualified announcement recognizing Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 ET. The recognition must grant him primary executive authority, such as head of state or prime minister. Readers often mistake conditional statements or general support for the required official declaration.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 4%
- No 96%
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