Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?
Why it moved: −9 points at 23:42 UTC, after theinformation.com: OpenAI’s Annualized Revenue Neared $50 Billion, Lower Than Past Reports — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 76% |
| 9 Oct, 00:37 UTC | 76% |
| 9 Oct, 00:09 UTC | 75% |
| 8 Oct, 23:42 UTC | 75% |
| 7 Oct, 23:42 UTC | 84% |
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Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Nasdaq Private Market reports a valuation of at least $1.25 trillion for OpenAI on any date through December 31, 2026. If no such data appears by January 1, 2027, the resolution relies on the last available NPM figures or public market capitalization if an IPO occurs. Readers often mistake the linked news story about revenue for the valuation metric required for resolution.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 76%
- No 25%
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