Germany leading at halftime?
The market favoured No at 71% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$23k
Total volume$23k
Liquidity$33k
Resolved24 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 24 Sept, 22:53 UTC | 100% |
| 24 Sept, 18:09 UTC | 33% |
| 24 Sept, 17:27 UTC | 34% |
| 23 Sept, 17:27 UTC | 30% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Germany leads at any point during the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. It resolves to No if Germany does not lead within that specific timeframe or if the match is canceled without a make-up game. Readers often mistake the final score for the deciding factor, but only the halftime status matters.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
View this market on Polymarket →