Will Kylian Mbappé finish in the top 2 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Implied probability 100%+28
24-hour volume$13k
Total volume$20k
Liquidity$102k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Why it moved: +11 points at 23:03 UTC, after News Feed: England captain Harry Kane wins Ballon d’Or — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 26 Oct, 23:03 UTC | 100% |
| 26 Oct, 22:37 UTC | 89% |
| 26 Oct, 22:22 UTC | 88% |
| 26 Oct, 21:53 UTC | 88% |
| 26 Oct, 21:18 UTC | 88% |
| 26 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 88% |
| 26 Oct, 20:12 UTC | 89% |
| 26 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 86% |
| 26 Oct, 18:57 UTC | 87% |
| 26 Oct, 18:26 UTC | 85% |
| 26 Oct, 17:45 UTC | 84% |
| 26 Oct, 17:13 UTC | 85% |
| 26 Oct, 16:59 UTC | 85% |
| 26 Oct, 11:49 UTC | 81% |
| 26 Oct, 10:14 UTC | 79% |
| 26 Oct, 09:53 UTC | 79% |
| 26 Oct, 09:17 UTC | 79% |
| 26 Oct, 07:31 UTC | 78% |
| 26 Oct, 07:24 UTC | 78% |
| 26 Oct, 04:29 UTC | 73% |
| 26 Oct, 03:34 UTC | 71% |
| 26 Oct, 03:13 UTC | 70% |
| 26 Oct, 02:41 UTC | 71% |
| 26 Oct, 02:13 UTC | 71% |
| 26 Oct, 01:58 UTC | 71% |
| 26 Oct, 01:27 UTC | 78% |
| 26 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 77% |
| 25 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 77% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Kylian Mbappé ranks second or first in the final men's 2026 Ballon d'Or list published by France Football. The market resolves to No if he finishes third or lower, if the award is canceled, or if the results are not finalized by November 9, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
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