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Syrian troops enter Yemen by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability 41%+24
24-hour volume$9k
Total volume$26k
Liquidity$32k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
How the odds moved · Syrian troops enter Yemen by December 31, 2026?
0%50%100%41%8 Nov, 12:51 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now41%
12 Nov, 15:06 UTC38%
12 Nov, 14:58 UTC40%
12 Nov, 14:18 UTC45%
12 Nov, 13:50 UTC49%
12 Nov, 13:16 UTC48%
12 Nov, 12:54 UTC52%
12 Nov, 12:27 UTC47%
12 Nov, 11:56 UTC58%
12 Nov, 11:25 UTC51%
12 Nov, 10:55 UTC21%
12 Nov, 10:27 UTC20%
12 Nov, 09:10 UTC19%
12 Nov, 08:50 UTC18%
12 Nov, 08:03 UTC19%
12 Nov, 07:56 UTC18%
12 Nov, 07:16 UTC19%
12 Nov, 05:15 UTC18%
12 Nov, 04:55 UTC18%
12 Nov, 03:55 UTC25%
12 Nov, 02:06 UTC25%
12 Nov, 00:46 UTC25%
12 Nov, 00:19 UTC30%
11 Nov, 23:52 UTC31%
11 Nov, 23:18 UTC33%
11 Nov, 22:59 UTC39%
11 Nov, 22:12 UTC39%
11 Nov, 21:58 UTC40%
11 Nov, 21:24 UTC40%
11 Nov, 20:56 UTC38%
11 Nov, 20:15 UTC21%
11 Nov, 19:47 UTC19%
11 Nov, 19:20 UTC19%
11 Nov, 18:59 UTC18%
11 Nov, 18:25 UTC17%
11 Nov, 17:57 UTC17%
11 Nov, 16:38 UTC17%
11 Nov, 16:25 UTC17%
11 Nov, 14:51 UTC16%
11 Nov, 13:31 UTC17%
11 Nov, 12:50 UTC18%
11 Nov, 12:22 UTC14%
11 Nov, 11:31 UTC16%
11 Nov, 11:09 UTC14%
11 Nov, 10:32 UTC14%
11 Nov, 10:25 UTC13%
11 Nov, 09:43 UTC13%
11 Nov, 09:23 UTC13%
11 Nov, 08:56 UTC15%
11 Nov, 08:23 UTC15%
11 Nov, 07:57 UTC15%
11 Nov, 07:23 UTC16%
11 Nov, 06:50 UTC14%
11 Nov, 05:56 UTC12%
11 Nov, 05:29 UTC13%
11 Nov, 04:48 UTC15%
11 Nov, 04:28 UTC19%
11 Nov, 03:55 UTC20%
11 Nov, 03:22 UTC20%
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC21%
11 Nov, 02:20 UTC20%
11 Nov, 01:40 UTC24%
11 Nov, 01:26 UTC27%
11 Nov, 00:44 UTC30%
11 Nov, 00:10 UTC31%
10 Nov, 21:57 UTC30%
10 Nov, 21:15 UTC26%
10 Nov, 20:54 UTC27%
10 Nov, 20:07 UTC21%
10 Nov, 19:40 UTC19%
10 Nov, 19:19 UTC19%
10 Nov, 17:08 UTC20%
10 Nov, 16:54 UTC20%
10 Nov, 16:04 UTC16%
10 Nov, 15:57 UTC15%
10 Nov, 15:22 UTC15%
10 Nov, 14:56 UTC14%
10 Nov, 13:43 UTC16%
10 Nov, 13:22 UTC15%
10 Nov, 11:19 UTC15%
10 Nov, 10:13 UTC14%
10 Nov, 09:59 UTC15%
10 Nov, 09:19 UTC15%
10 Nov, 07:31 UTC14%
10 Nov, 07:04 UTC15%
10 Nov, 06:50 UTC16%
10 Nov, 05:43 UTC17%
10 Nov, 05:29 UTC16%
10 Nov, 04:49 UTC16%
10 Nov, 04:22 UTC16%
10 Nov, 03:28 UTC16%
10 Nov, 02:47 UTC16%
10 Nov, 02:14 UTC16%
10 Nov, 01:53 UTC17%
10 Nov, 01:26 UTC16%
9 Nov, 22:44 UTC19%
9 Nov, 22:09 UTC18%
9 Nov, 20:54 UTC19%
9 Nov, 15:51 UTC17%
9 Nov, 15:16 UTC18%
9 Nov, 14:22 UTC17%
9 Nov, 13:53 UTC18%
9 Nov, 13:26 UTC16%
9 Nov, 12:51 UTC20%
8 Nov, 12:51 UTC32%

Your call. How does this end?

Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls

Does the market have this right?

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What counts

The market resolves to Yes if active members of the regular Syrian armed forces deliberately enter any part of Yemen by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if such entry does not occur, or if it cannot be confirmed by official sources or credible reporting within three days after the deadline.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 41%
  • No 60%

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