Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?
Implied probability 0%−1
24-hour volume$487
Total volume$44k
Liquidity$14k
Resolves30 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 24 Sept, 10:28 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 13:28 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 01:59 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 18:34 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 13:15 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 12:57 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 09:52 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 08:14 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 05:48 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 05:29 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 04:26 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 03:54 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 02:55 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 02:13 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 01:53 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 00:20 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Sept, 21:33 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Sept, 20:56 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Sept, 19:28 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Sept, 18:05 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Sept, 17:37 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Sept, 17:02 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Sept, 16:36 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Sept, 15:49 UTC | 1% |
| 18 Sept, 05:25 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Sept, 04:45 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Sept, 04:26 UTC | 3% |
| 17 Sept, 22:21 UTC | 3% |
| 17 Sept, 21:48 UTC | 3% |
| 17 Sept, 19:28 UTC | 3% |
| 17 Sept, 18:43 UTC | 3% |
| 17 Sept, 18:28 UTC | 3% |
| 17 Sept, 17:49 UTC | 3% |
| 17 Sept, 17:27 UTC | 4% |
| 17 Sept, 16:54 UTC | 4% |
| 17 Sept, 16:25 UTC | 5% |
| 17 Sept, 15:58 UTC | 6% |
| 17 Sept, 15:24 UTC | 6% |
| 17 Sept, 14:57 UTC | 7% |
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What counts
For NVIDIA to win, it must hold the second-largest market capitalization globally at 4 PM ET on September 30, 2026. The outcome depends on a consensus of credible financial reporting regarding company valuations at that specific time.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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