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Will "I Play Rocky" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?

Implied probability 45%−4
24-hour volume$30
Total volume$19k
Liquidity$5k
Resolves15 Mar 2027
How the odds moved · Will "I Play Rocky" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?
0%50%100%45%9 Nov, 23:35 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now45%
12 Nov, 15:06 UTC45%
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9 Nov, 23:35 UTC46%

Your call. How does this end?

Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls

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What counts

The market resolves to Yes if the film appears on the official list of Best Picture nominees announced by AMPAS on January 21, 2027. It resolves to No if the film is not nominated by that date or if no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Readers often mistake the ceremony date for the deadline, but the nomination announcement date determines the outcome.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 45%
  • No 55%

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