Venezuelan Opposition Leader Wins 2025 Prize

The story so far

1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 9 Oct 2026. The New York Times published first, on 9 October at 08:16 UTC.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Before Jan 1, 2027 — the market puts it at 5%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Venezuela holds a presidential election before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about an opposition leader winning a prize as the trigger for resolution, but only the actual holding of a presidential election counts.
• Venezuela — the market puts it at 0%, closing 15 Jan 2031. The market resolves to Yes if Venezuela wins the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup. It resolves to No if any other team wins that tournament. Readers often mistake the linked news story about a prize for the actual championship result.
• Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? — the market puts it at 0%, with $669 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Frank Donovan officially holds the position of Venezuela's head of state on December 31, 2026, at 12 PM ET. It resolves to No if any other individual holds that role or if no one holds it. Readers often mistake a nomination or announcement for official status, but only confirmed, sworn-in leaders count.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.