Trump supporter Anthony Constantino runs for New York congressional seat

The story so far

1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 19 Oct 2026. The Guardian US published first, on 19 October at 10:00 UTC.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Anthony Constantino — the market puts it at 73%, with $183 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the person sworn into the U.S. House for New York's 21st congressional district in 2027 is a Republican. It resolves to No if that member belongs to any other party or is independent. Readers often mistake the election date for the resolution deadline, but the official trigger is the swearing-in event.
• Elise Stefanik — the market puts it at 11%, closing 1 Jan 2028. The market resolves to Yes if Elise Stefanik announces a presidential campaign for the 2028 Republican nomination before January 1, 2028. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked story about Anthony Constantino as relevant to the resolution criteria.
• Elise Stefanik — the market puts it at 0%, closing 7 Nov 2028. The outcome is Yes if Elise Stefanik wins the Republican nomination for President in 2028 and accepts it. The outcome is No if she does not win or accept that specific nomination. Readers often mistake winning a primary for accepting the nomination, but both conditions must be met.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.