Trump Stumps for Sullivan in Alaska

The story so far

1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 13 Oct 2026. Bloomberg.com published first, on 13 October at 18:51 UTC.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Will Dan S. Sullivan win the 2026 Alaska Senate first round by 0%-3%? — the market puts it at 16%, with $19 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Nov 2026. Yes resolves if Dan S. Sullivan wins the first round with a margin between 0% and 3%. No resolves if his winning margin is greater than 3%. Readers often mistake the linked news story for the source of truth, but the market relies solely on the official vote count from the state electoral authority.
• At least 42% — the market puts it at 66%, closing 3 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Dan Sullivan receives at least 42% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election. The outcome depends on the certified percentage of votes, not early polls or unofficial counts. Readers often mistake the deadline for when results are called versus when they are officially certified.
• Dan Sullivan, 0-3% — the market puts it at 23%, closing 2 Jun 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Dan Sullivan wins the 2026 Alaska Senate election by a margin between 0% and 3%. The margin must be at least 0% but strictly less than 3%. Readers often mistake the upper bound, thinking a 3% victory counts as Yes when it actually triggers a No resolution.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.