Trump on Cusp of Toppling Brazil’s Leftist Giant
The US president is positioned to remove the leader of Latin America's largest leftist party.
This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 28% |
| 9 Oct, 10:15 UTC | 28% |
| 8 Oct, 22:29 UTC | 29% |
| 8 Oct, 18:11 UTC | 28% |
| 8 Oct, 13:43 UTC | 29% |
| 8 Oct, 13:00 UTC | 28% |
| 8 Oct, 12:31 UTC | 29% |
| 8 Oct, 11:46 UTC | 30% |
| 8 Oct, 11:18 UTC | 30% |
| 8 Oct, 08:55 UTC | 30% |
| 8 Oct, 05:03 UTC | 30% |
| 8 Oct, 00:13 UTC | 31% |
| 7 Oct, 23:18 UTC | 31% |
| 7 Oct, 21:37 UTC | 32% |
| 7 Oct, 20:36 UTC | 32% |
| 7 Oct, 20:22 UTC | 36% |
| 7 Oct, 19:42 UTC | 37% |
| 7 Oct, 19:20 UTC | 34% |
| 7 Oct, 17:16 UTC | 35% |
| 7 Oct, 16:48 UTC | 35% |
| 7 Oct, 15:48 UTC | 36% |
| 7 Oct, 15:24 UTC | 37% |
| 7 Oct, 14:41 UTC | 36% |
| 7 Oct, 14:19 UTC | 37% |
| 7 Oct, 12:50 UTC | 32% |
| 6 Oct, 12:50 UTC | 49% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 7 Oct 2026. The Hill News published first, on 7 October at 12:30 UTC.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Will Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro for President of Brazil? — the market puts it at 28%, with $524 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 26 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump makes a single public statement that explicitly and unambiguously supports Flávio Bolsonaro as a candidate for President of Brazil in the 2026 elections, confirmed by credible reporting as an official endorsement. It resolves to No if he endorses any other individual for that specific office or fails to endorse anyone at all.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Polymarket Will Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro for President of Brazil? 28% −1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
Have your say
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Email me when the odds move
In this story
- Donald Trump
- Brazil