Ohio Congresswoman Marcy Kaptur Faces Backlash Over Anti-Trans Campaign Ad
Marcy Kaptur releases an advertisement opposing transgender ideology in schools and sports, sparking criticism ahead of her tight re-election bid in Ohio.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 73% |
| 12 Oct, 19:56 UTC | 73% |
| 12 Oct, 17:30 UTC | 71% |
| 11 Oct, 13:51 UTC | 73% |
| 10 Oct, 11:11 UTC | 72% |
| 9 Oct, 10:09 UTC | 71% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 10 Oct 2026. The Guardian published first, on 10 October at 11:00 UTC.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Marcy Kaptur — the market puts it at 73%, with $133 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the person elected to represent Ohio's 9th district for the term starting in 2027 is a Democrat. It resolves to No if that representative belongs to any other party or is an independent. Readers often mistake the date of the linked news story for the deadline, but the actual condition depends solely on the party affiliation of the winner of the 2026 election.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Kalshi Marcy Kaptur 73%
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In this story
- Marcy Kaptur