Morgan Stanley Leads Fundraise for Texas Refinery Project
The bank is leading a $4 billion equity and debt fundraising effort for the first new major US oil refinery in half a century.
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The odds
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Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 38% |
| 14 Oct, 18:05 UTC | 38% |
| 13 Oct, 16:33 UTC | 39% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 15 Oct 2026. Bloomberg Markets published first, on 15 October at 18:09 UTC.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Above 5.8 million barrels/day — the market puts it at 38%, with $135 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Mar 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the U.S. Energy Information Administration reports that Texas’s annual-average crude oil field production for calendar year 2026 exceeds 5.8 million barrels per day. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the source of truth, assuming any industry report counts instead of requiring an official EIA publication.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
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Markets on this story
- Kalshi Above 5.8 million barrels/day 38%
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In this story
- Morgan Stanley
- Texas