Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro Tied in Polls Ahead of First Round Vote
New polls show the candidates tied before Saturday's vote.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 61% |
| 3 Oct, 22:03 UTC | 60% |
| 3 Oct, 21:43 UTC | 61% |
| 3 Oct, 20:17 UTC | 61% |
| 3 Oct, 19:36 UTC | 60% |
| 3 Oct, 19:02 UTC | 61% |
| 3 Oct, 18:36 UTC | 60% |
| 3 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 61% |
| 3 Oct, 17:56 UTC | 61% |
| 3 Oct, 17:21 UTC | 60% |
| 3 Oct, 16:53 UTC | 60% |
| 3 Oct, 15:47 UTC | 60% |
| 3 Oct, 15:20 UTC | 60% |
| 3 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 61% |
| 3 Oct, 13:58 UTC | 60% |
| 3 Oct, 13:23 UTC | 59% |
| 3 Oct, 12:08 UTC | 59% |
| 3 Oct, 11:54 UTC | 57% |
| 3 Oct, 11:28 UTC | 59% |
| 3 Oct, 10:10 UTC | 60% |
| 3 Oct, 09:27 UTC | 59% |
| 3 Oct, 08:10 UTC | 58% |
| 3 Oct, 07:51 UTC | 59% |
| 3 Oct, 07:13 UTC | 59% |
| 3 Oct, 05:42 UTC | 59% |
| 3 Oct, 02:40 UTC | 57% |
| 3 Oct, 02:02 UTC | 58% |
| 3 Oct, 01:49 UTC | 57% |
| 3 Oct, 00:36 UTC | 58% |
| 3 Oct, 00:16 UTC | 57% |
| 2 Oct, 23:04 UTC | 58% |
| 2 Oct, 22:57 UTC | 57% |
| 2 Oct, 22:16 UTC | 57% |
| 2 Oct, 21:05 UTC | 58% |
| 2 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 57% |
| 2 Oct, 20:25 UTC | 57% |
| 2 Oct, 18:33 UTC | 58% |
| 2 Oct, 15:02 UTC | 57% |
| 2 Oct, 14:35 UTC | 56% |
| 2 Oct, 14:21 UTC | 56% |
| 2 Oct, 12:37 UTC | 57% |
| 2 Oct, 11:42 UTC | 58% |
| 2 Oct, 11:15 UTC | 57% |
| 2 Oct, 09:30 UTC | 59% |
| 2 Oct, 09:23 UTC | 58% |
| 2 Oct, 08:32 UTC | 57% |
| 2 Oct, 07:49 UTC | 56% |
| 2 Oct, 07:28 UTC | 56% |
| 2 Oct, 06:50 UTC | 59% |
| 2 Oct, 04:46 UTC | 61% |
| 2 Oct, 04:28 UTC | 61% |
| 2 Oct, 03:55 UTC | 61% |
| 2 Oct, 03:09 UTC | 60% |
| 2 Oct, 01:59 UTC | 61% |
| 2 Oct, 00:36 UTC | 61% |
| 1 Oct, 23:32 UTC | 61% |
| 1 Oct, 22:26 UTC | 62% |
| 1 Oct, 21:44 UTC | 60% |
| 1 Oct, 20:49 UTC | 61% |
| 1 Oct, 19:34 UTC | 61% |
| 1 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 60% |
| 1 Oct, 16:44 UTC | 61% |
| 1 Oct, 16:14 UTC | 60% |
| 1 Oct, 14:45 UTC | 61% |
| 1 Oct, 14:29 UTC | 60% |
| 1 Oct, 11:53 UTC | 61% |
| 1 Oct, 05:40 UTC | 61% |
| 1 Oct, 05:20 UTC | 60% |
| 1 Oct, 04:52 UTC | 61% |
| 1 Oct, 03:55 UTC | 61% |
| 1 Oct, 02:36 UTC | 60% |
| 1 Oct, 02:00 UTC | 61% |
| 1 Oct, 01:27 UTC | 61% |
| 1 Oct, 00:44 UTC | 60% |
| 30 Sept, 23:47 UTC | 59% |
| 30 Sept, 21:08 UTC | 60% |
| 30 Sept, 20:31 UTC | 59% |
| 30 Sept, 17:59 UTC | 60% |
| 30 Sept, 16:44 UTC | 61% |
| 30 Sept, 15:00 UTC | 60% |
| 30 Sept, 13:57 UTC | 61% |
| 30 Sept, 12:53 UTC | 59% |
| 30 Sept, 11:25 UTC | 61% |
| 30 Sept, 10:29 UTC | 60% |
| 30 Sept, 08:35 UTC | 61% |
| 30 Sept, 06:41 UTC | 60% |
| 30 Sept, 04:55 UTC | 61% |
| 30 Sept, 04:20 UTC | 59% |
| 30 Sept, 02:21 UTC | 60% |
| 30 Sept, 01:44 UTC | 58% |
| 29 Sept, 22:02 UTC | 59% |
| 29 Sept, 21:17 UTC | 58% |
| 29 Sept, 18:47 UTC | 59% |
| 29 Sept, 17:57 UTC | 58% |
| 29 Sept, 17:25 UTC | 59% |
| 29 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 59% |
| 29 Sept, 14:06 UTC | 57% |
| 29 Sept, 13:42 UTC | 56% |
| 29 Sept, 07:17 UTC | 57% |
| 29 Sept, 06:31 UTC | 56% |
| 29 Sept, 06:22 UTC | 57% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 56% |
| 28 Sept, 14:06 UTC | 57% |
| 28 Sept, 13:30 UTC | 56% |
| 28 Sept, 09:35 UTC | 58% |
| 28 Sept, 06:36 UTC | 57% |
| 28 Sept, 02:33 UTC | 58% |
| 28 Sept, 01:43 UTC | 57% |
| 27 Sept, 22:24 UTC | 58% |
| 27 Sept, 21:57 UTC | 57% |
| 27 Sept, 20:15 UTC | 58% |
| 27 Sept, 19:59 UTC | 57% |
| 27 Sept, 19:27 UTC | 56% |
| 27 Sept, 15:31 UTC | 57% |
| 27 Sept, 14:24 UTC | 56% |
| 27 Sept, 11:54 UTC | 56% |
| 27 Sept, 05:50 UTC | 56% |
| 27 Sept, 04:39 UTC | 57% |
| 27 Sept, 04:18 UTC | 55% |
| 27 Sept, 03:33 UTC | 57% |
| 27 Sept, 03:19 UTC | 56% |
| 26 Sept, 21:24 UTC | 57% |
| 26 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 55% |
| 26 Sept, 17:32 UTC | 57% |
| 26 Sept, 16:56 UTC | 56% |
| 26 Sept, 15:56 UTC | 57% |
| 26 Sept, 11:20 UTC | 56% |
| 26 Sept, 09:33 UTC | 55% |
| 26 Sept, 02:09 UTC | 56% |
| 26 Sept, 01:37 UTC | 55% |
| 26 Sept, 00:41 UTC | 54% |
| 26 Sept, 00:08 UTC | 55% |
| 25 Sept, 20:32 UTC | 54% |
| 25 Sept, 19:10 UTC | 53% |
| 25 Sept, 17:13 UTC | 54% |
| 25 Sept, 16:58 UTC | 53% |
| 25 Sept, 15:27 UTC | 54% |
| 25 Sept, 13:54 UTC | 55% |
| 25 Sept, 08:39 UTC | 55% |
| 25 Sept, 07:00 UTC | 54% |
| 25 Sept, 04:28 UTC | 55% |
| 25 Sept, 02:46 UTC | 54% |
| 25 Sept, 00:52 UTC | 55% |
| 23 Sept, 10:42 UTC | 58% |
| 23 Sept, 07:27 UTC | 57% |
| 22 Sept, 07:02 UTC | 60% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 2 articles since 1 Oct 2026. Bloomberg Markets published first, on 1 October at 15:59 UTC. The most recent article, from Bloomberg Markets, appeared on 1 October at 22:02 UTC.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Flávio Bolsonaro — the market puts it at 61%, with $60k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 25 Oct 2027. The outcome is Yes if Flávio Bolsonaro wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. The outcome is No if he does not win. Readers often mistake current polling data for the final result, but only the actual election winner matters.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Kalshi Flávio Bolsonaro 61% +4
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Lula
- Flávio Bolsonaro