Jon Ossoff's Rise as a Democratic Star in Georgia
The rising star pairs bland governing with hot rhetoric.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 95% |
| 13 Oct, 16:11 UTC | 95% |
| 13 Oct, 15:50 UTC | 95% |
| 13 Oct, 13:33 UTC | 95% |
| 13 Oct, 12:51 UTC | 95% |
| 13 Oct, 09:53 UTC | 95% |
| 13 Oct, 05:01 UTC | 95% |
| 13 Oct, 04:15 UTC | 95% |
| 13 Oct, 03:01 UTC | 95% |
| 12 Oct, 23:40 UTC | 95% |
| 12 Oct, 22:33 UTC | 95% |
| 12 Oct, 20:09 UTC | 95% |
| 12 Oct, 15:07 UTC | 95% |
| 12 Oct, 13:29 UTC | 95% |
| 12 Oct, 11:46 UTC | 95% |
| 11 Oct, 17:48 UTC | 95% |
| 11 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 95% |
| 11 Oct, 13:51 UTC | 95% |
| 11 Oct, 09:52 UTC | 95% |
| 11 Oct, 05:42 UTC | 95% |
| 11 Oct, 03:26 UTC | 95% |
| 10 Oct, 11:18 UTC | 96% |
| 10 Oct, 04:20 UTC | 95% |
| 10 Oct, 01:13 UTC | 95% |
| 9 Oct, 23:05 UTC | 96% |
| 9 Oct, 21:44 UTC | 95% |
| 9 Oct, 18:42 UTC | 96% |
| 9 Oct, 17:39 UTC | 96% |
| 9 Oct, 15:55 UTC | 95% |
| 9 Oct, 14:31 UTC | 95% |
| 9 Oct, 13:20 UTC | 95% |
| 9 Oct, 05:07 UTC | 96% |
| 9 Oct, 03:40 UTC | 96% |
| 9 Oct, 00:16 UTC | 95% |
| 8 Oct, 23:23 UTC | 96% |
| 8 Oct, 19:24 UTC | 96% |
| 8 Oct, 13:51 UTC | 95% |
| 8 Oct, 12:38 UTC | 96% |
| 8 Oct, 03:15 UTC | 96% |
| 8 Oct, 02:09 UTC | 96% |
| 8 Oct, 01:49 UTC | 97% |
| 7 Oct, 22:58 UTC | 96% |
| 7 Oct, 18:20 UTC | 96% |
| 7 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 96% |
| 7 Oct, 00:35 UTC | 96% |
| 6 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 96% |
| 6 Oct, 07:45 UTC | 96% |
| 6 Oct, 02:43 UTC | 96% |
| 5 Oct, 21:40 UTC | 96% |
| 5 Oct, 19:06 UTC | 96% |
| 5 Oct, 06:42 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Oct, 21:05 UTC | 95% |
| 4 Oct, 20:12 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Oct, 16:18 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Oct, 15:58 UTC | 95% |
| 4 Oct, 08:04 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Oct, 07:12 UTC | 95% |
| 4 Oct, 03:34 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Oct, 03:16 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Oct, 02:50 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Oct, 01:07 UTC | 95% |
| 3 Oct, 16:53 UTC | 96% |
| 3 Oct, 13:37 UTC | 96% |
| 3 Oct, 10:23 UTC | 96% |
| 3 Oct, 03:44 UTC | 96% |
| 2 Oct, 22:42 UTC | 96% |
| 2 Oct, 20:11 UTC | 96% |
| 2 Oct, 18:55 UTC | 96% |
| 2 Oct, 18:19 UTC | 96% |
| 2 Oct, 16:44 UTC | 96% |
| 2 Oct, 15:51 UTC | 96% |
| 2 Oct, 04:52 UTC | 97% |
| 1 Oct, 22:51 UTC | 95% |
| 1 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 96% |
| 1 Oct, 15:43 UTC | 95% |
| 1 Oct, 12:38 UTC | 96% |
| 1 Oct, 02:43 UTC | 95% |
| 30 Sept, 20:01 UTC | 96% |
| 30 Sept, 12:24 UTC | 95% |
| 30 Sept, 01:23 UTC | 96% |
| 30 Sept, 00:40 UTC | 96% |
| 29 Sept, 23:46 UTC | 95% |
| 29 Sept, 23:23 UTC | 96% |
| 29 Sept, 21:47 UTC | 95% |
| 29 Sept, 21:17 UTC | 96% |
| 29 Sept, 18:39 UTC | 95% |
| 29 Sept, 17:57 UTC | 97% |
| 29 Sept, 15:00 UTC | 95% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 97% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 95% |
| 26 Sept, 04:36 UTC | 95% |
| 25 Sept, 04:10 UTC | 94% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 11 Oct 2026. The Economist published first, on 11 October at 16:10 UTC.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Jon Ossoff — the market puts it at 95%, with $3k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if a Democrat takes office as a U.S. Senator from Georgia for the term starting in 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about campaign support for the actual election result.
- Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — the market puts it at 14%, with $55k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 8 Nov 2028. The Yes outcome occurs if Jon Ossoff wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, as confirmed by official party sources. The No outcome applies in all other cases. Readers often mistake early speculation or primary leads for an actual nomination.
- At least 66% — the market puts it at 16%, closing 3 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Jon Ossoff receives at least 66% of the popular vote in Gwinnett County during the first round of the 2026 U.S. Senate election. The outcome depends on the certified percentage from that specific county, not the statewide results or any other jurisdiction. Readers often mistake the deadline for the general election date rather than the certification of the Gwinnett County vote count.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Kalshi Jon Ossoff 95%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Polymarket Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? 14% −2
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi At least 66% 16%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Jon Ossoff
- Georgia