Candidates Campaign for House Seats in Districts Where They Don't Live

The story so far

1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 13 Oct 2026. The Hill published first, on 13 October at 10:00 UTC.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• At least 50% — the market puts it at 29%, closing 3 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Jay Feely receives between 50% and 100% of the popular vote in the 2026 Arizona-01 House election. The final outcome depends on the certified percentage of votes, not early polls or unofficial counts.
• At least 50% — the market puts it at 78%, closing 3 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Amish Shah receives at least 50% of the popular vote in the certified results of the 2026 AZ-01 House election. It resolves to No if he receives less than 50%. Readers often mistake the date of the election for the deadline, but the resolution depends on the final certified vote count.
• Shah, 5+ pts — the market puts it at 54%, closing 3 Nov 2027. The outcome is Yes if the Democratic Party wins Arizona's 1st District by at least 5 percentage points. The outcome is No if they win by less than 5 points or lose the election. Readers often mistake the margin of victory, which must be calculated from the final certified results, not early returns.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.