Bank of Canada Rate Hike Bets Fade After Worst Job Loss Since 2020

The story so far

1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 9 Oct 2026. Bloomberg.com published first, on 9 October at 21:55 UTC.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Bank of Canada — the market puts it at 73%, with $31 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if the Bank of Canada raises its overnight rate target and this action is confirmed by the relevant source agency before January 1, 2027. The outcome is No if this specific confirmation does not occur within that timeframe. Readers often mistake any general discussion of interest rates for an actual rate hike or ignore the requirement for official confirmation.
• Exactly 2.25% — the market puts it at 40%, with $1 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the Bank of Canada's overnight rate target is exactly 2.25% on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No.
• Exactly 0ㅤ — the market puts it at 93%, with $22 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if there are zero Bank of Canada rate cuts in 2026. It resolves to No if there is one or more rate cuts during that year. Readers often mistake the linked news story about current job losses for the actual resolution criteria, which depends solely on future rate cut counts.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.