Australian Dollar Hits Lowest Since July as RBA Rate Hike Bets Fade
The Australian dollar fell to its lowest level since early July after domestic labor data caused traders to reduce expectations for interest rate increases by the Reserve Bank of Australia.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 13% |
| 16 Oct, 02:30 UTC | 13% |
| 16 Oct, 00:48 UTC | 15% |
| 15 Oct, 22:01 UTC | 9% |
| 15 Oct, 20:59 UTC | 16% |
| 15 Oct, 18:20 UTC | 4% |
| 15 Oct, 16:00 UTC | 17% |
| 14 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 21% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 15 Oct 2026. Bloomberg Markets published first, on 15 October at 15:38 UTC.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Hike 1-25bps — the market puts it at 13%, closing 3 Nov 2026. The outcome is Yes if the Reserve Bank of Australia raises interest rates by 1 to 25 basis points during its November Monetary Policy Board meeting. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake market sentiment or other central bank actions for this specific event.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
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Markets on this story
- Kalshi Hike 1-25bps 13%
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In this story
- Reserve Bank of Australia