Democratic party
Why it moved: +10 points at 04:47 UTC, after Mother Jones: Sherrod Brown Reclaims Senate Seat in Ohio — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 57% |
| 4 Nov, 07:04 UTC | 57% |
| 4 Nov, 06:14 UTC | 61% |
| 4 Nov, 04:47 UTC | 59% |
| 3 Nov, 04:11 UTC | 49% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a Democrat takes office as an Ohio Senator starting in 2029. It resolves to No if someone else holds that seat at the start of that term. Readers often mistake the election date for the resolution deadline, but the actual trigger is when the winner is sworn in.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 57%
- No 43%