Democratic party
Implied probability 30%
24-hour volume$305
Total volume$4k
Liquidity$4k
Resolves7 Nov 2029
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 30% |
| 5 Nov, 02:24 UTC | 30% |
| 4 Nov, 22:42 UTC | 35% |
| 4 Nov, 21:34 UTC | 34% |
| 4 Nov, 18:04 UTC | 33% |
| 4 Nov, 15:21 UTC | 32% |
| 4 Nov, 12:09 UTC | 30% |
| 4 Nov, 05:31 UTC | 27% |
| 4 Nov, 05:02 UTC | 31% |
| 4 Nov, 04:40 UTC | 20% |
| 3 Nov, 04:11 UTC | 37% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a Democrat is sworn in as an Iowa Senator for the term starting in 2029. It resolves to No if that specific condition does not happen. Readers often mistake the linked story about the governor race for the relevant event, but only a U.S. Senate seat counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 30%
- No 70%