Republican party
Implied probability 25%+1
24-hour volume$45k
Total volume$1.8M
Liquidity$1.8M
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 25% |
| 23 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 25% |
| 23 Oct, 18:40 UTC | 25% |
| 23 Oct, 18:14 UTC | 26% |
| 23 Oct, 17:24 UTC | 26% |
| 23 Oct, 16:07 UTC | 24% |
| 23 Oct, 14:51 UTC | 25% |
| 23 Oct, 11:06 UTC | 26% |
| 23 Oct, 08:39 UTC | 25% |
| 23 Oct, 07:26 UTC | 24% |
| 22 Oct, 14:17 UTC | 25% |
| 22 Oct, 13:04 UTC | 26% |
| 22 Oct, 10:31 UTC | 25% |
| 22 Oct, 07:54 UTC | 24% |
| 21 Oct, 12:42 UTC | 25% |
| 21 Oct, 07:29 UTC | 26% |
| 20 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 25% |
| 20 Oct, 14:33 UTC | 26% |
| 20 Oct, 13:13 UTC | 27% |
| 17 Oct, 13:34 UTC | 26% |
| 17 Oct, 08:39 UTC | 27% |
| 17 Oct, 01:23 UTC | 26% |
| 16 Oct, 22:55 UTC | 25% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a Republican is sworn in as an Alaska Senator for the 2027 term. It resolves to No if that does not happen. Readers often mistake the lawsuit filing date for the resolution deadline, but the actual trigger is the swearing-in event.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 25%
- No 75%