Democratic party
Implied probability 69%+1
24-hour volume$87k
Total volume$2.0M
Liquidity$2.0M
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 69% |
| 30 Oct, 11:10 UTC | 69% |
| 30 Oct, 02:34 UTC | 68% |
| 30 Oct, 01:21 UTC | 67% |
| 29 Oct, 15:22 UTC | 69% |
| 29 Oct, 11:39 UTC | 68% |
| 29 Oct, 07:51 UTC | 69% |
| 29 Oct, 06:37 UTC | 68% |
| 29 Oct, 05:22 UTC | 69% |
| 29 Oct, 04:07 UTC | 68% |
| 29 Oct, 02:53 UTC | 69% |
| 29 Oct, 01:38 UTC | 68% |
| 29 Oct, 00:20 UTC | 69% |
| 28 Oct, 23:04 UTC | 68% |
| 28 Oct, 20:37 UTC | 70% |
| 28 Oct, 16:59 UTC | 72% |
| 28 Oct, 14:35 UTC | 74% |
| 28 Oct, 13:16 UTC | 73% |
| 28 Oct, 10:48 UTC | 74% |
| 28 Oct, 08:15 UTC | 73% |
| 28 Oct, 05:51 UTC | 74% |
| 28 Oct, 04:35 UTC | 73% |
| 28 Oct, 02:09 UTC | 74% |
| 28 Oct, 00:53 UTC | 73% |
| 27 Oct, 12:33 UTC | 74% |
| 27 Oct, 11:22 UTC | 73% |
| 27 Oct, 10:12 UTC | 74% |
| 27 Oct, 08:54 UTC | 73% |
| 27 Oct, 03:52 UTC | 74% |
| 27 Oct, 01:25 UTC | 73% |
| 26 Oct, 18:04 UTC | 75% |
| 26 Oct, 16:51 UTC | 74% |
| 26 Oct, 15:39 UTC | 75% |
| 26 Oct, 14:23 UTC | 76% |
| 26 Oct, 13:06 UTC | 74% |
| 26 Oct, 09:17 UTC | 76% |
| 26 Oct, 04:22 UTC | 75% |
| 25 Oct, 15:03 UTC | 76% |
| 25 Oct, 13:49 UTC | 74% |
| 25 Oct, 08:32 UTC | 76% |
| 24 Oct, 21:37 UTC | 75% |
| 24 Oct, 20:23 UTC | 76% |
| 24 Oct, 19:09 UTC | 75% |
| 24 Oct, 16:40 UTC | 76% |
| 24 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 75% |
| 24 Oct, 09:15 UTC | 76% |
| 24 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 75% |
| 24 Oct, 03:30 UTC | 76% |
| 24 Oct, 00:52 UTC | 75% |
| 23 Oct, 21:11 UTC | 76% |
| 23 Oct, 19:57 UTC | 75% |
| 23 Oct, 14:51 UTC | 76% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The outcome is Yes if a Democrat takes office as an Alaska Senator starting in 2027. The outcome is No if that does not happen. Readers often mistake the linked news story about election certification for the actual event required to resolve the market.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 69%
- No 31%