Above 104
Implied probability 20%−9
24-hour volume$2
Total volume$5k
Liquidity$5k
Resolves7 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 20% |
| 23 Oct, 12:36 UTC | 20% |
| 21 Oct, 16:29 UTC | 29% |
| 20 Oct, 16:17 UTC | 24% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if the Carbon Arc Walmart Credit Card Spend for October 2026 exceeds 104. Otherwise, it resolves to "No." Readers often mistakenly focus on the headline about Walmart's new membership bundle instead of the specific credit card spending metric required for resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 20%
- No 80%