At least 52%
Implied probability 10%+1
24-hour volume$400
Total volume$2k
Liquidity$2k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 10% |
| 9 Oct, 15:55 UTC | 10% |
| 9 Oct, 04:33 UTC | 11% |
| 8 Oct, 22:42 UTC | 9% |
| 8 Oct, 15:46 UTC | 56% |
| 7 Oct, 14:49 UTC | 8% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Ken Paxton receives at least 52% of the popular vote in the 2026 Texas Senate election. The outcome depends on the certified percentage of votes, not early polls or projections. Readers often mistake the final certification date for the deadline, but the resolution relies strictly on the official certified results.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 10%
- No 90%