At least 46%
Implied probability 91%+1
24-hour volume$5
Total volume$1k
Liquidity$1k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 91% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 91% |
| 16 Oct, 10:14 UTC | 90% |
| 15 Oct, 09:59 UTC | 89% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Abdul El-Sayed receives at least 46% of the popular vote in the 2026 Michigan Senate election. It resolves to No if he receives less than 46%. Readers often mistake the deadline for the election day itself, but the resolution depends on the final certified vote count.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 91%
- No 9%