At least 50%
Implied probability 6%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$4k
Liquidity$4k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 6% |
| 20 Oct, 22:38 UTC | 6% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if David Valadao receives at least 50% of the vote in the 2026 CA-22 House election. The outcome depends on the certified percentage of the popular vote, not just the initial count. Readers often mistake the date of certification for the election day itself.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 6%
- No 94%