At least 68%
Why it moved: +12 points at 13:17 UTC, after CoinDesk: Sherrod Brown's Ohio edge threatens a rough go for crypto next year — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 94% |
| 1 Nov, 13:17 UTC | 94% |
| 31 Oct, 12:19 UTC | 82% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Sherrod Brown receives at least 68% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate special election in Cuyahoga County, Ohio. It resolves to No if he receives less than 68%. Readers often mistake the geographic scope, assuming the rule applies to the entire state rather than just Cuyahoga County.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 94%
- No 6%