At least 56%
Why it moved: +6 points at 10:05 UTC, after NPR Politics: Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford beats GOP incumbent for governor — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 50% |
| 4 Nov, 10:05 UTC | 50% |
| 3 Nov, 08:55 UTC | 44% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Aaron Ford receives at least 56% of the popular vote in Clark County during the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election. The outcome depends on the certified vote count from official election authorities, not early returns or polls. Readers often mistake the deadline for when votes are cast rather than when they are officially certified.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 50%
- No 50%