At least 48%
Why it moved: −41 points at 03:18 UTC, after Mother Jones: Byron Donalds Is Florida’s Next Governor — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 04:47 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 03:18 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Nov, 03:06 UTC | 45% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Byron Donalds receives at least 48% of the popular vote in Miami-Dade County for the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election. The outcome depends on the certified vote count from that specific county, not the statewide result. Readers often mistake the deadline as Election Day rather than the date of official certification.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%