At least 39%
Why it moved: +4 points at 20:38 UTC, after Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: Brazil election results live: Lula and Bolsonaro locked in a tight race — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 98% |
| 5 Oct, 07:56 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Oct, 21:05 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Oct, 20:38 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Oct, 14:59 UTC | 93% |
| 4 Oct, 13:46 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Oct, 12:32 UTC | 94% |
| 4 Oct, 11:30 UTC | 95% |
| 4 Oct, 10:57 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Oct, 09:47 UTC | 93% |
| 3 Oct, 09:33 UTC | 89% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Flávio Bolsonaro receives between 39% and 100% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. The outcome depends on the certified percentage from official election results, not early polls or projections. Readers often mistake the deadline for when votes are cast rather than when results are officially certified.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 98%
- No 2%