Madonna
The market favoured No at 52% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$26k
Total volume$46k
Liquidity$46k
Resolved27 Sept 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 28 Sept, 01:19 UTC | 98% |
| 28 Sept, 00:54 UTC | 63% |
| 28 Sept, 00:22 UTC | 44% |
| 27 Sept, 23:59 UTC | 41% |
| 27 Sept, 23:09 UTC | 57% |
| 27 Sept, 22:53 UTC | 62% |
| 27 Sept, 22:24 UTC | 66% |
| 27 Sept, 21:57 UTC | 67% |
| 27 Sept, 21:29 UTC | 61% |
| 27 Sept, 20:29 UTC | 57% |
| 27 Sept, 19:59 UTC | 69% |
| 27 Sept, 19:27 UTC | 66% |
| 27 Sept, 18:58 UTC | 55% |
| 27 Sept, 18:13 UTC | 53% |
| 27 Sept, 17:59 UTC | 58% |
| 27 Sept, 16:52 UTC | 66% |
| 27 Sept, 16:23 UTC | 59% |
| 27 Sept, 15:45 UTC | 52% |
| 27 Sept, 15:10 UTC | 48% |
| 27 Sept, 14:38 UTC | 53% |
| 27 Sept, 14:03 UTC | 52% |
| 27 Sept, 13:22 UTC | 49% |
| 27 Sept, 11:47 UTC | 56% |
| 27 Sept, 08:35 UTC | 52% |
| 27 Sept, 08:22 UTC | 51% |
| 27 Sept, 07:48 UTC | 50% |
| 27 Sept, 07:27 UTC | 51% |
| 27 Sept, 06:54 UTC | 47% |
| 27 Sept, 06:17 UTC | 48% |
| 27 Sept, 05:57 UTC | 47% |
| 27 Sept, 05:23 UTC | 43% |
| 27 Sept, 04:59 UTC | 50% |
| 27 Sept, 03:26 UTC | 48% |
| 27 Sept, 02:58 UTC | 48% |
| 27 Sept, 02:01 UTC | 45% |
| 27 Sept, 01:55 UTC | 48% |
| 27 Sept, 01:17 UTC | 57% |
| 27 Sept, 00:50 UTC | 48% |
| 26 Sept, 23:25 UTC | 45% |
| 26 Sept, 22:14 UTC | 63% |
| 26 Sept, 21:58 UTC | 45% |
| 26 Sept, 21:24 UTC | 38% |
| 26 Sept, 20:36 UTC | 40% |
| 26 Sept, 20:28 UTC | 43% |
| 26 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 40% |
| 26 Sept, 19:16 UTC | 65% |
| 26 Sept, 18:26 UTC | 39% |
| 26 Sept, 17:23 UTC | 34% |
| 26 Sept, 15:56 UTC | 33% |
| 26 Sept, 15:15 UTC | 36% |
| 26 Sept, 13:50 UTC | 34% |
| 26 Sept, 10:50 UTC | 36% |
| 26 Sept, 09:40 UTC | 53% |
| 26 Sept, 08:22 UTC | 33% |
| 26 Sept, 06:32 UTC | 32% |
| 26 Sept, 06:00 UTC | 26% |
| 26 Sept, 03:38 UTC | 27% |
| 26 Sept, 02:02 UTC | 26% |
| 26 Sept, 01:46 UTC | 32% |
| 25 Sept, 23:01 UTC | 25% |
| 25 Sept, 22:02 UTC | 24% |
| 25 Sept, 21:00 UTC | 23% |
| 25 Sept, 20:53 UTC | 28% |
| 24 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 9% |
| 24 Sept, 14:36 UTC | 11% |
| 24 Sept, 11:02 UTC | 12% |
| 24 Sept, 10:12 UTC | 15% |
| 24 Sept, 03:20 UTC | 18% |
| 23 Sept, 16:27 UTC | 14% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Madonna wins Artist of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards. The outcome is No if she does not win that specific award. Readers often mistake other awards or nominations for the deciding factor.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%