Trump (3+ times)
The market favoured Yes at 80% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Why it moved: +16 points at 18:37 UTC, after The Hill News: Vance on Trump talking about GOP senator’s ‘a—’: ‘I’m jealous’ — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 30 Oct, 18:37 UTC | 99% |
| 29 Oct, 18:42 UTC | 84% |
| 29 Oct, 17:59 UTC | 81% |
| 29 Oct, 15:30 UTC | 80% |
| 28 Oct, 15:11 UTC | 61% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if JD Vance mentions Trump three or more times during the Fox News town hall with JD Vance originally scheduled for October 29, 2026. The outcome is No if he does not reach that count in that specific event. Readers often mistake the general campaign tour headline for the actual trigger, but only the specified town hall counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%