Event does not qualify
The market favoured No at 98% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$1k
Total volume$1k
Liquidity$1k
Resolved4 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 12:49 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Oct, 12:31 UTC | 2% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a qualifying event does not occur. A qualifying event is one that meets specific criteria outlined in the resolution rules. Readers often misunderstand what constitutes a qualifying event, focusing on the headline rather than the detailed criteria.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%