Before Oct 1, 2026
Why it moved: +21 points at 15:59 UTC, after France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines: Israeli policies threaten 'life and existence' of Palestinians, Abbas tells UN — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 21% |
| 24 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 21% |
| 23 Sept, 14:47 UTC | 0% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the United States and Iran hold a senior-level diplomatic meeting between now and October 1, 2026. It resolves to No if no such meeting occurs by that deadline. Readers often mistake the date of the linked news story for the resolution deadline.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 21%
- No 79%