Reform party
Implied probability 37%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$75k
Liquidity$75k
Resolves31 Aug 2029
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 37% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 37% |
| 17 Oct, 14:11 UTC | 33% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Reform party wins the most seats in the next UK general election. It resolves to No if any other party wins more seats. Readers often mistake this for a majority of votes rather than the number of parliamentary seats.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 37%
- No 63%