Above 102
Implied probability 18%−2
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$3k
Liquidity$3k
Resolves8 Oct 2026
Why it moved: +5 points at 04:42 UTC, after South China Morning Post: Uber shuts down FlyTaxi, second metered cab platform it acquired in Hong Kong — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 18% |
| 25 Sept, 12:25 UTC | 18% |
| 25 Sept, 07:35 UTC | 17% |
| 25 Sept, 04:42 UTC | 18% |
| 24 Sept, 04:18 UTC | 13% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The outcome is Yes if the number of Uber ride app downloads in Hong Kong during September 2026 exceeds 102 million. It is No if that download count is 102 million or lower. Readers often mistake the deadline for the announcement date rather than the specific month of data collection.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 18%
- No 82%