At least 3
Implied probability 99%+53
24-hour volume$18k
Total volume$18k
Liquidity$18k
Resolves3 Feb 2027
Why it moved: +56 points at 10:21 UTC, after NPR Politics: Texas turns blue with U.S. Senate and gubernatorial wins — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 15:50 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 11:32 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Nov, 10:21 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Nov, 10:10 UTC | 43% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Democratic nominees win three or more statewide races in Texas during the November 3, 2026 general election. It resolves to No if they win fewer than three such races. Readers often mistake the linked story about recent flips as counting toward this total, but only the 2026 election results matter.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%