Bo French & Ken Paxton
The market favoured No at 72% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Why it moved: −27 points at 06:00 UTC, after The Hill: Bo French loses TX Railroad Commissioner race — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 06:00 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 05:23 UTC | 28% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes only if both Bo French wins the Texas Railroad Commissioner election and Ken Paxton wins the U.S. Senate election in November 2026. It resolves to No if either candidate loses or if the results are not finalized by the deadline. Readers often mistake a projected win for an official victory, but the outcome depends on the certified election results, not early projections.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%