Above 5.7 million barrels/day
Implied probability 98%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$182k
Liquidity$182k
Resolves31 Mar 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 98% |
| 24 Oct, 17:54 UTC | 98% |
| 23 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 97% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the U.S. Energy Information Administration reports that Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for calendar year 2026 exceeds 5.7 million barrels per day. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the current news headline about Iran for the actual data source, but only the EIA's report on Texas production counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 98%
- No 2%