Before Dec 1, 2026
The market favoured No at 62% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right
Final probability 45%
24-hour volume$162
Total volume$4k
Liquidity$4k
Resolved1 Dec 2026
Why it moved: +8 points at 23:28 UTC, after The Hill: Lisa Cook's lawyers call Trump's investigation committee 'demonstrably biased' — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 45% |
| 14 Oct, 23:34 UTC | 45% |
| 14 Oct, 23:28 UTC | 44% |
| 13 Oct, 00:27 UTC | 36% |
Outcomes
- Yes 45%
- No 55%