Before Jan 1, 2027
Why it moved: +4 points at 21:45 UTC, after Fortune: Pentagon orders bases to plan for 90 days without the grid as Britain urges families to stockpile food and water — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 31% |
| 26 Oct, 21:45 UTC | 31% |
| 25 Oct, 21:32 UTC | 27% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump physically enters and stays inside the Pentagon’s geographic boundaries between now and December 31, 2026. The outcome is No if he does not meet this condition within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked news story about power outages for the actual resolution criteria.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 31%
- No 69%