Below $150B
Implied probability 54%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$1k
Liquidity$1k
Resolves4 Feb 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 54% |
| 8 Oct, 11:39 UTC | 54% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the total U.S. goods trade deficit with China for the entire calendar year 2026 falls under $150 billion. It resolves to No if that annual total reaches or exceeds $150 billion. Readers often mistake a single month's data, such as the August figure in the linked story, for the final yearly result.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 54%
- No 46%