Sudan / Sudanese
Why it moved: −5 points at 12:57 UTC, after BBC News: Co-ordinated cattle raids kill at least 72 people in South Sudan — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 21% |
| 27 Oct, 12:57 UTC | 21% |
| 21 Oct, 06:28 UTC | 26% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump states that Sudan or Sudanese people are involved in the context of the linked story between October 1, 2026, at 10:00 am ET and November 1, 2026, at 12:00 am ET. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the source of the statement, assuming any mention by other officials counts, but only direct statements by Trump are relevant.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 21%
- No 79%