Meta
The market favoured Yes at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$1k
Total volume$9k
Liquidity$9k
Resolved1 Oct 2026
Why it moved: +50 points at 09:44 UTC, after Axios: Trump's AI "constitution" crowns day of accelerating ambition — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 30 Sept, 09:44 UTC | 99% |
| 29 Sept, 10:45 UTC | 49% |
| 29 Sept, 08:34 UTC | 48% |
| 29 Sept, 06:54 UTC | 51% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 46% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 43% |
| 28 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 36% |
| 28 Sept, 02:41 UTC | 53% |
| 28 Sept, 02:08 UTC | 42% |
| 28 Sept, 01:36 UTC | 59% |
| 28 Sept, 01:28 UTC | 58% |
| 27 Sept, 23:44 UTC | 39% |
| 27 Sept, 22:32 UTC | 46% |
| 27 Sept, 22:24 UTC | 70% |
| 27 Sept, 21:50 UTC | 52% |
| 27 Sept, 20:15 UTC | 26% |
| 27 Sept, 19:59 UTC | 34% |
| 27 Sept, 18:06 UTC | 38% |
| 27 Sept, 17:06 UTC | 35% |
| 27 Sept, 06:54 UTC | 23% |
| 27 Sept, 04:11 UTC | 31% |
| 25 Sept, 19:10 UTC | 28% |
| 24 Sept, 12:02 UTC | 26% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump states the word Meta, or a plural or possessive form of it, before October 1, 2026, at 12:00am ET. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the deadline for the date of the news story rather than the specific cutoff time.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%