Above 40
Implied probability 94%+6
24-hour volume$200
Total volume$7k
Liquidity$7k
Resolves3 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 94% |
| 27 Oct, 19:19 UTC | 94% |
| 27 Oct, 01:46 UTC | 88% |
| 26 Oct, 13:13 UTC | 90% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump holds more than 40 rallies between January 1 and November 3, 2026. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the start date of the count or assume only major events qualify.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 94%
- No 6%