Iran (3+ times)
The market favoured No at 100% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$10k
Total volume$10k
Liquidity$10k
Resolved4 Nov 2026
Why it moved: +62 points at 04:12 UTC, after Times of India: US, Israel prepare for fresh Iran strikes as Tehran threatens with ‘Father of All Bombs’ — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 22 Oct, 04:12 UTC | 62% |
| 20 Oct, 18:51 UTC | 0% |
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%