Electric Vehicle / EV
The market favoured Yes at 63% a day out, but No won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$18k
Total volume$19k
Liquidity$19k
Resolved15 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 1 Oct, 22:51 UTC | 8% |
| 1 Oct, 22:26 UTC | 41% |
| 1 Oct, 21:59 UTC | 64% |
| 1 Oct, 21:16 UTC | 64% |
| 1 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 67% |
| 1 Oct, 20:29 UTC | 66% |
| 1 Oct, 19:55 UTC | 56% |
| 1 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 45% |
| 1 Oct, 18:28 UTC | 44% |
| 1 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 42% |
| 1 Oct, 17:14 UTC | 45% |
| 1 Oct, 16:21 UTC | 54% |
| 1 Oct, 15:58 UTC | 51% |
| 1 Oct, 14:37 UTC | 52% |
| 1 Oct, 14:21 UTC | 51% |
| 1 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 51% |
| 1 Oct, 13:13 UTC | 48% |
| 1 Oct, 12:07 UTC | 53% |
| 1 Oct, 11:45 UTC | 51% |
| 1 Oct, 11:26 UTC | 51% |
| 30 Sept, 10:22 UTC | 66% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump mentions Electric Vehicle or EV during his remarks at Peterbilt Motors Company in Denton, Texas on October 1, 2026. The outcome is No if he does not use those specific words at that event. Readers often mistake the linked news story about fuel economy standards as the trigger, but only Trump's spoken words at the specified location and date count.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%